Disclaimer. Por error he publicado ésta entrada antes de completar los 10 puntos. La dejo publicada y los iré completando. Igual aquí hay una nueva fórmula…
No se si me convence el concepto. Tenía claro el motivo cuando leí el artículo y lo tendré cuando lo relea.
3. La importancia de las vías fluviales para la dispersión de la oleada neolítica.
Título. The role of waterways in the spread of the Neolithic.
Abstract. The causes and implications of the regional variations in the spread of the incipient agriculture in Europe remain poorly understood. We use population dynamics models to study the dispersal of the Neolithic in Europe from a localised area in the Near East, solving the two-dimensional reaction-diffusion equation on a spherical surface. We focus on the role of major river paths and coastlines in the advance of farming, to model the rapid advances of the Linear Pottery (LBK) and the Impressed Ware traditions along the DanubeeRhine corridor and the Mediterranean coastline, respectively. We argue that the random walk of individuals, which results in diffusion of the population, can be anisotropic in those areas and hence lead to an effective advection. The standard reaction-diffusion equation is thus supplemented with an advection term, confined to the proximity of major rivers and coastlines. The model allows for the spatial variation in both the human mobility (diffusivity) and the carrying capacity, reflecting the local altitude and latitude. This approach can easily be generalised to include other environmental factors, such as the bioproductivity of landscapes. Our model successfully accounts for the regional variations in the spread of the Neolithic, consistent with the radiocarbon data, and reproduces a time delay in the spread of farming to the Eastern Europe, Britain and Scandinavia. 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Que datos se tenían en cuenta en su planificación en los años 80.
Un análisis en profundidad.
Pienso en términos geográficos.
Si pensamos en la UE y en EEUU como unidades aisladas, ambas tienen una localización geográfica (de aislamiento, de isla) similar con respecto a la unidad más grande.
Si pensamos en su situación con respecto a la Ruta Central, no está tan claro.
Aparentemente Puerto Rico estaría mejor posicionada (¿ no hay espacio en el Caribe para un Nodo Principal de tipo entrepot redistribuidor ?). Viendo el mapa, está claro que Puerto Rico no tiene el potencial de Nodo Principal y sin embargo recuerdo haber leído que tenían un puerto potente….
Como ya hemos comentado en otras ocasiones Jamaica, el este de Cuba o Haití son en éste sentido los mejor posicionados (salvo que finalmente se haga el proyectado en el pasado Canal de Cuba, sobre el que hablamos en otras entradas) si es que tiene sentido un Nodo Principal en éste punto. Y el Oeste de Cuba, para el Ramal del golfo de México. Y la punta de la península de Yucatán.
7. El Puerto Rico.
Ok, le he dedicado un poco de tiempo a ver cual es la situación de los puertos de Puerto Rico y si su localización es buena o no.
Comenzamos con Wikipedia.
The Rafael Cordero Santiago Port of the Americas (POTA) —Spanish:Puerto de las Américas Rafael Cordero Santiago— is a megaport currently under construction in Ponce, Puerto Rico. The project aims to convert the current Port of Ponce into a value-added tax-free customs-free international shipping hub similar to, though not as large as, the megaports located inSingapore and Rotterdam. The Port of the Americas is considered Puerto Rico’s main Caribbean port, and, at a depth of 50 feet, it is also the deepest port in the Caribbean
Y ahora un artículo.
The Port of Americas plays an important role in developing Puerto Rico into a global business hub. With the expansion of the Panama Canal set to be completed in 2015, there is expected to be an increase in the number of large vessels coming into the region. The port is strategically located along the Mona Passage – a key shipping route between the Atlantic Ocean and the Panama Canal – and is equipped to serve Panamax and Post-Panamax vessels. It is now the deepest in Puerto Rico and one of the deepest ports in all of the Caribbean. Additionally, two super Post-Panamax ship-to-shore cranes and 4,400 linear feet of quayside have been installed. These and other vital upgrades give the Port of the Americas the unique ability to emerge as an international shipping hub.
Geographically, Puerto Rico is well-situated in the Caribbean in close proximity to major shipping lanes. With its ability to handle the world’s largest vessels, the Port of the Americas is an ideal junction for cargo headed to both North and South America from Asia, Europe and Africa. As the second-largest city in Puerto Rico, Ponce has the labor and ancillary resources necessary to support a robust, around the clock operation.
“We envision the Port of the Americas becoming a major global shipping hub in the years to come,” said Carlos Mejia, Port of Ponce Authority Director. “There are very few places in the region with a channel that is 50 feet deep. With carriers actively utilizing larger vessels, a trend that we fully expect to continue with the reopening of the Panama Canal, the region will need a centralized shipping hub. Ponce certainly has the infrastructure, location and capacity to meet the demand in an increasingly global economy.”
Hmmm…Parece que las perspectivas son buenas. Quizás me haya engañado la simple vista. Lo dejamos como tema a estudiar.
Y recogiendo el tema del punto anterior, haciendo memoria, Jamaica ya es una cierta potencia, Cuba parece que abandona el este y se está concentrando en el Oeste, con el puerto de Mariel y Haiti y Puerto Rico entran en la competición. Interesante.
Two more Caribbean ports have tossed their hats into the ring as potential transshipment hubs that will be able to handle post-Panamax ships, which will begin transiting the Panama Canal in early 2016.
Officials from Port Lafito, a private port under development in Haiti, and Puerto Rico’s Port of the Americas outlined their plans during the 38th Annual Conference on the Caribbean and Central America in Miami last week.
The Haitian port will be the deepest in the country with a draft of 41 feet, which isn’t deep enough to handle a post-Panamax ship. But a second phase with a shipping channel that would potentially be 52-56 feet deep is under consideration, said Pierre E. Liautaud, a Port Lafito board member.
To get started, Mejía said, the Port of the Americas will need to begin with domestic cargo and then try to develop trans-shipment business and encourage establishment of maritime-related industries near the port.
But Wainio said the Ponce port will face stiff competition from ports such as Freeport, Bahamas and Kingston, Jamaica that already have built trans-shipment businesses and are closer to major shipping routes than Puerto Rico in the eastern Caribbean.
“The lion’s share of trans-shipment for the region will go through Panama and Cartagena, Colombia,” he added.
Lafito, Americas, Freeport, Kingston. Quedese el lector con estos nombres.
I read recently a very interesting paper by David Starkie (Investment and Growth: The Impact of Britain’s Post-War Trunk Roads Programme, In Economic Affairs, Feb 2015) in which he argues that the construction of the British motorways in the 1960s and 70s had no discernible effect on productivity and growth. One reason was that pre-existing commercial traffic was intra-regional whereas the motorways radiated out from London.
I’ve argued on the FT’s blog The Exchange that standard cost-benefit analysis does not do a good job when it comes to big infrastructure projects (like a motorway or HS2) because it is a tool for assessing marginal changes, not ones which might involve large non-linearities – behaviour changes or network effects.There is some work being done on non-marginal CBA (eg Cameron Hepburn’s paper for example) but it is not (yet?) standard practice.
9. Sugerencias de lectura (del mismo blog en el que he visto la entrada anterior.
Son varias. Nosotros destacamos:
—The Remaking of the Mining Industry by David Humphreys.
I love business histories, with all their detail about how decisions get made with no reference at all to marginal cost=marginal revenue, and David Humphreys used to be chief economist of Rio Tinto and then Norislk Nickel in Russia.
—Making the Modern World: Materials and Dematerialization (well of course I’d like that one!), packed full of engineering insight. This one tells me that power density is “the rate of energy flux per unit of area” – huh? – and that moving to low power density renewable fuels will require “a profound spatial restructuring of the energy system.” My guess is that it means new transmission and distribution grids, but I’ll have to read it to be sure. The final sentence, in bold italics reads: “New energy arrangements are both inevitable and desirable, but without any doubt, if they are to be based on large scale conversions of renewable energy resources, then the societies dominated by megacities and concentrated industrial production will require a profound spatial restructuring of the energy system, a process with many major environmental and socioeconomic consequences.”
Muy relevante para la hipótesis Trade Lane Megacities. Por cierto, hace mucho que no hablamos de temas energéticos.
10. ¿ Una ciencia e ingenieria de las ciudades ?
Lo llevamos diciendo desde hace tiempo en éste blog: hace falta una verdadera ciencia e ingeniería de las ciudades. Una ciencia que sea capaz de gestionar bien ciudades de cualquier escala. Algunos ejemplos que como se trata el “objeto científico” ciudades actualmente:
Un libro reciente sobre el urbanismo clásico desde el punto de vista económico. Y otro con un enfoque aparentemente nuevo. Me lo ha sugerido Amazon mientras leía sobre el anterior.
In The New Science of Cities, Michael Batty suggests that to understand cities we must view them not simply as places in space but as systems of networks and flows. To understand space, he argues, we must understand flows, and to understand flows, we must understand networks — the relations between objects that comprise the system of the city. Drawing on the complexity sciences, social physics, urban economics, transportation theory, regional science, and urban geography, and building on his own previous work, Batty introduces theories and methods that reveal the deep structure of how cities function. Batty presents the foundations of a new science of cities, defining flows and their networks and introducing tools that can be applied to understanding different aspects of city structure. He examines the size of cities, their internal order, the transport routes that define them, and the locations that fix these networks. He introduces methods of simulation that range from simple stochastic models to bottom-up evolutionary models to aggregate land-use transportation models. Then, using largely the same tools, he presents design and decision-making models that predict interactions and flows in future cities. These networks emphasize a notion with relevance for future research and planning: that design of cities is collective action.